Al Ahli 1-0 Al Gharafa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Qatar League, 18 Aug 2024

📅18/08/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.32
Draw
21%
3.8
Away
50%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under
45%
2.96
Over
55%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
56%
1.38
No
44%
2.81
Total Goals
0-1
26%
7.13
2-3
39%
2.2
4-5
26%
2.45
6+
9%
4.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
12%
1/X
4%
X/1
8%
X/2
21%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
28%
Home Win
26%
+2.3pp
21%
Draw
22%
-1.1pp
50%
Away Win
51%
-1.0pp
45%
Under 2.5
30%
+14.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
70%
-14.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
68%
-12.4pp
44%
BTTS No
32%
+12.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ahli The Market 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Gharafa The Market 56%
+0% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -5%
0.93/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.39/0.72
-15% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -26%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
383 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 81%
17.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.1
10.6 Crosses 16.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ahli
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Al Gharafa
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.40 xG 2.31
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
345 Passes 291
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
30 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
24.02.2024 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 1-2 HT 1-0 Al Ahli Al Ahli KAT
01.09.2023 Al Ahli Al Ahli 1-4 HT 1-1 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
03.03.2023 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 1-1 HT 1-0 Al Ahli Al Ahli KAT
31.08.2022 Al Ahli Al Ahli 3-3 HT 2-1 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
07.01.2022 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 0-0 HT 0-0 Al Ahli Al Ahli KAT
17.09.2021 Al Ahli Al Ahli 0-1 HT 0-0 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
POST-MATCH Al Ahli vs Al Gharafa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahli squeezed past Al Gharafa 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Al Gharafa at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Gharafa led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Al Ahli and 1.67 for Al Gharafa.

What was the final score of Al Ahli vs Al Gharafa?

Al Ahli 1-0 Al Gharafa in the Qatar League on 18/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ahli vs Al Gharafa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Gharafa win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Al Ahli 28%, draw 21%, Al Gharafa 50%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Al Gharafa) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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