Al Gharafa 1-2 Al Ahli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Qatar League, 24 Feb 2024

📅24/02/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.05
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
29%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.98
Over 2.5
62%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.32
No
40%
3.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
7.67
2-3 Goals
35%
2.26
4-5 Goals
29%
2.41
6+ Goals
18%
4.41
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
6%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
45%
+2.9pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.4pp
29%
Away Win
32%
-3.3pp
38%
Under 2.5
30%
+8.3pp
62%
Over 2.5
70%
-8.3pp
60%
BTTS Yes
72%
-12.0pp
40%
BTTS No
28%
+12.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Gharafa EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Ahli EU Bookmakers 36%
+1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +21%
2.08/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.68
-19% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +53%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
343 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 78%
32.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
18.0 Crosses 16.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Gharafa
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Al Ahli
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.49 xG 0.76
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
352 Passes 278
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 19
7 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
01.09.2023 Al Ahli Al Ahli 1-4 HT 1-1 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
03.03.2023 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 1-1 HT 1-0 Al Ahli Al Ahli KAT
31.08.2022 Al Ahli Al Ahli 3-3 HT 2-1 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
07.01.2022 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 0-0 HT 0-0 Al Ahli Al Ahli KAT
17.09.2021 Al Ahli Al Ahli 0-1 HT 0-0 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
12.03.2021 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 1-3 HT 0-1 Al Ahli Al Ahli KAT
POST-MATCH Al Gharafa vs Al Ahli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahli squeezed past Al Gharafa 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Al Gharafa at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (60%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Gharafa had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Al Gharafa and 1.33 for Al Ahli.

What was the final score of Al Gharafa vs Al Ahli?

Al Gharafa 1-2 Al Ahli in the Qatar League on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Gharafa vs Al Ahli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Gharafa win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Al Gharafa 48%, draw 24%, Al Ahli 29%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Al Gharafa) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Al Gharafa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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