18/08/2024
·
02:05
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-0
2nd Score
0-1
Junior vs Fortaleza CEIF Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
11%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
💡 For the risk lovers:
Home Win
★★
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
53%
28%
Draw
27%
28%
Away Win
20%
58%
Under 2.5
60%
42%
Over 2.5
40%
46%
BTTS Yes
42%
54%
BTTS No
58%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Junior v Fortaleza CEIF — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Junior
EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY
Fortaleza CEIF
EU Bookmakers 23%
+2% /
+11%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
1.46/0.71
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
1.09/1.30
+13%
/
-5%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-34%
/
+9%
54%
Ball Possession
46%
12
Total Shots
11
4
Shots on Target
4
5
Corners
4
340 · 80%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
256 · 75%
19.9
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
18.4
16.5
Crosses
16.7
2.3
Yellow Cards
2.8
Junior vs Fortaleza CEIF Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Junior
0W-0D-1L
AWAY
Fortaleza CEIF
0.00
Avg Goals (FT)
2.00
0.29
xG
1.43
46%
Ball Possession
54%
8
Total Shots
21
4
Shots on Target
8
3
Corners
4
272
Passes
337
77%
Pass Accuracy
81%
7
Box Touches
41
11
Crosses
13
1
Yellow Cards
1
The Meetings
Junior 2-1 Fortaleza CEIF — Actual Match Statistics
RESULT
Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME
Junior
2-1
AWAY
Fortaleza CEIF
1.43
xG
0.65
42%
Ball Possession
58%
9
Total Shots
11
4
Shots on Target
1
4
Corners
3
205
Passes
326
75%
Pass Accuracy
88%
21
Box Touches
8
11
Crosses
13
1
Yellow Cards
4
POST-MATCH
Junior vs Fortaleza CEIF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Junior edged past Fortaleza CEIF 2-1.
As we said in the preview, our model had Junior as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Junior had 42% of the ball to Fortaleza CEIF's 58%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 1.43 to 0.65.
What was the final score of Junior vs Fortaleza CEIF?
Junior 2-1 Fortaleza CEIF in the Colombia - Primera on 18/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Junior vs Fortaleza CEIF?
Before kick-off our model rated a Junior win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Junior 43%, draw 28%, Fortaleza CEIF 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Junior) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Junior)
✗ Under 2.5
✗ BTTS No
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