Brighton & Hove Albion 3-2 Wolverhampton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - League Cup, 18 Sep 2024

Brighton & Hove Albion
3-2 HT 2-1
Wolverhampton
📅18/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
England - League Cup – 2024/2025

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Wolverhampton Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.47
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
23%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.38
Over 2.5
50%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.68
No
52%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.0
2-3 Goals
40%
1.95
4-5 Goals
23%
2.76
6+ Goals
13%
7.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.77
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
16.8
X/1
17%
3.82
X/2
7%
13.1
X/X
10%
6.82
2/1
6%
20.35
2/2
10%
9.39
2/X
5%
17.25
Value flag · 1/X at 16.8 — our 10% vs market 3.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
63%
-11.2pp
25%
Draw
20%
+4.5pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+6.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
38%
+12.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
62%
-12.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.5pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brighton & Hove Albion v Wolverhampton — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brighton & Hove Albion EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Wolverhampton EU Bookmakers 20%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -31% / -31%
1.36/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.57
+40% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / -17%
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
492 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 75%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.0
10.7 Crosses 1.0
0.5 Yellow Cards 0.0

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Wolverhampton Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brighton & Hove Albion
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Wolverhampton
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.27 xG 1.18
63% Ball Possession 37%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
540 Passes 284
88% Pass Accuracy 78%
38 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.02.2024 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton 1-0 HT 1-0 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion FAK
22.01.2024 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 0-0 HT 0-0 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton İNP
19.08.2023 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton 1-4 HT 0-1 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
29.04.2023 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 6-0 HT 4-0 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton İNP
05.11.2022 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton 2-3 HT 2-2 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
30.04.2022 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton 0-3 HT 0-1 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP

Brighton & Hove Albion 3-2 Wolverhampton — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brighton & Hove Albion
3-2
AWAY Wolverhampton
1.16 xG 1.08
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
9 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 1
452 Passes 348
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 15
9 Crosses 12
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Brighton & Hove Albion vs Wolverhampton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brighton & Hove Albion edged past Wolverhampton 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Brighton & Hove Albion as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Brighton & Hove Albion had 54% of the ball to Wolverhampton's 46%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 1.16 to 1.08.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brighton & Hove Albion had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Brighton & Hove Albion and 0.67 for Wolverhampton.

What was the final score of Brighton & Hove Albion vs Wolverhampton?

Brighton & Hove Albion 3-2 Wolverhampton in the England - League Cup on 18/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brighton & Hove Albion vs Wolverhampton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brighton & Hove Albion win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Brighton & Hove Albion 52%, draw 25%, Wolverhampton 23%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brighton & Hove Albion) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Brighton & Hove Albion) ✗ BTTS No
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