Ajax 5-0 Fortuna Sittard — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 18 Sep 2024

📅18/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.34
Draw
23%
4.49
Away
21%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.0
Over 2.5
53%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.13
No
53%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.72
2-3 Goals
45%
1.82
4-5 Goals
21%
3.26
6+ Goals
11%
11.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.59
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
22.3
X/1
15%
3.34
X/2
9%
17.35
X/X
12%
6.64
2/1
7%
24.45
2/2
7%
14.7
2/X
5%
23.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
70%
-14.0pp
23%
Draw
19%
+3.8pp
21%
Away Win
11%
+10.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
46%
+0.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
54%
-0.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
43%
+3.8pp
53%
BTTS No
57%
-3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 14%
-4% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +6%
2.88/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/2.19
+21% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +1%
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
396 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 72%
49.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.4
24.3 Crosses 12.2
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Fortuna Sittard
3.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.27 xG 0.78
68% Ball Possession 32%
21 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 3
523 Passes 210
85% Pass Accuracy 70%
53 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 2
10.03.2024 Ajax Ajax 2-2 HT 1-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
03.09.2023 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 0-0 HT 0-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
09.04.2023 Ajax Ajax 4-0 HT 2-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
06.08.2022 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 2-3 HT 1-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
22.12.2021 Ajax Ajax 5-0 HT 2-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
21.09.2021 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 0-5 HT 0-3 Ajax Ajax HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax
5-0
AWAY Fortuna Sittard
3.11 xG 0.07
74% Ball Possession 26%
25 Total Shots 4
14 Shots on Target 1
15 Corners 0
698 Passes 200
91% Pass Accuracy 74%
89 Box Touches 5
32 Crosses 4
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax cruised past Fortuna Sittard 5-0. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ajax as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Ajax had 74% of the ball to Fortuna Sittard's 26%, shots finished 25-4, expected goals 3.11 to 0.07.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 3.17 goals for Ajax and 0.67 for Fortuna Sittard.

What was the final score of Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard?

Ajax 5-0 Fortuna Sittard in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 18/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Ajax 56%, draw 23%, Fortuna Sittard 21%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajax), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ajax) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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