Ajax 2-2 Fortuna Sittard — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 10 Mar 2024

📅10/03/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.53
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
20%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.46
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.44
6+ Goals
10%
13.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.46 — our 26% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.92
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.6
X/1
19%
3.67
X/2
8%
11.75
X/X
11%
5.45
2/1
7%
23.6
2/2
7%
9.56
2/X
5%
17.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
61%
-2.8pp
22%
Draw
23%
-0.4pp
20%
Away Win
16%
+3.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.1pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 20%
+1% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -2%
2.17/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.82
+4% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -15%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
406 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 74%
36.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
22.0 Crosses 15.9
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Fortuna Sittard
3.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.42 xG 0.73
65% Ball Possession 35%
22 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 3
500 Passes 228
84% Pass Accuracy 71%
58 Box Touches 16
26 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
03.09.2023 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 0-0 HT 0-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
09.04.2023 Ajax Ajax 4-0 HT 2-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
06.08.2022 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 2-3 HT 1-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
22.12.2021 Ajax Ajax 5-0 HT 2-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
21.09.2021 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 0-5 HT 0-3 Ajax Ajax HOL
24.01.2021 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 1-2 HT 0-1 Ajax Ajax HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax
2-2
AWAY Fortuna Sittard
2.65 xG 1.51
72% Ball Possession 28%
17 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 2
554 Passes 165
86% Pass Accuracy 65%
24 Box Touches 16
30 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax and Fortuna Sittard couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Ajax at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Ajax had 72% of the ball to Fortuna Sittard's 28%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 2.65 to 1.51.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.17 goals for Ajax and 0.50 for Fortuna Sittard.

What was the final score of Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard?

Ajax 2-2 Fortuna Sittard in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Ajax 58%, draw 22%, Fortuna Sittard 20%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ajax) ✗ BTTS No
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