NEC Nijmegen 2-0 Heerenveen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 10 Mar 2024

NEC Nijmegen
2-0 HT 0-0
Heerenveen
📅10/03/2024 · 🕒18:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
28%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.07
Over 2.5
56%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.6
No
41%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.06
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
29%
3.09
6+ Goals
13%
9.95
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.09 — our 29% vs market 26.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.8
1/2
7%
32.0
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
16%
4.83
X/2
11%
7.01
X/X
14%
5.13
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
23.6
2/2
10%
4.73
2/X
6%
13.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.6 — our 8% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-0.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.1pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-0.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
44%
-0.7pp
56%
Over 2.5
56%
+0.7pp
59%
BTTS Yes
58%
+1.1pp
41%
BTTS No
42%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

NEC Nijmegen v Heerenveen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Heerenveen EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +17%
1.78/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.34
+9% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +18%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
350 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 80%
30.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
23.0 Crosses 16.4
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.4

NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC Nijmegen
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Heerenveen
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.16 xG 1.38
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
376 Passes 363
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.10.2023 Heerenveen Heerenveen 1-1 HT 1-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
06.05.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 2-3 HT 1-1 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
04.09.2022 Heerenveen Heerenveen 0-0 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
13.02.2022 Heerenveen Heerenveen 0-1 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
06.11.2021 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-1 HT 0-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
15.07.2017 Heerenveen Heerenveen 2-2 HT 1-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HAZ

NEC Nijmegen 2-0 Heerenveen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NEC Nijmegen
2-0
AWAY Heerenveen
0.72 xG 0.78
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 0
8 Corners 6
400 Passes 427
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 27
19 Crosses 16
POST-MATCH NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC Nijmegen beat Heerenveen 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had NEC Nijmegen as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, NEC Nijmegen had 49% of the ball to Heerenveen's 51%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 0.72 to 0.78.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.17 for Heerenveen.

What was the final score of NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen?

NEC Nijmegen 2-0 Heerenveen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen?

Before kick-off our model rated a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split NEC Nijmegen 45%, draw 27%, Heerenveen 28%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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