AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
AZ Alkmaar v Excelsior — Team-Based Signals
AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 0-0
AZ Alkmaar
HOL
5-0
HT 5-0
Excelsior
HOL
1-4
HT 1-3
AZ Alkmaar
HOK
2-1
HT 2-0
AZ Alkmaar
HOL
4-2
HT 1-1
AZ Alkmaar
HOL
2-1
HT 1-1
Excelsior
HOL
AZ Alkmaar 4-0 Excelsior — Actual Match Statistics
AZ Alkmaar ran out comfortable winners over Excelsior 4-0. Half-time: 3-0.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had AZ Alkmaar as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, AZ Alkmaar had 58% of the ball to Excelsior's 42%, shots finished 16-4, expected goals 1.97 to 0.15.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.50 for Excelsior.
What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior?
AZ Alkmaar 4-0 Excelsior in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior?
Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 58%, draw 19%, Excelsior 23%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AZ Alkmaar), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.