AZ Alkmaar 4-0 Excelsior — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 10 Mar 2024

📅10/03/2024 · 🕒14:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.27
Draw
19%
5.28
Away
23%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.61
Over 2.5
54%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
6.1
2-3 Goals
36%
2.08
4-5 Goals
27%
2.56
6+ Goals
14%
5.64
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.38
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
5%
25.5
X/1
18%
3.53
X/2
6%
24.85
X/X
10%
9.48
2/1
7%
21.85
2/2
8%
18.0
2/X
4%
24.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
74%
-16.1pp
19%
Draw
16%
+2.8pp
23%
Away Win
10%
+13.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
35%
+11.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
65%
-11.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.2pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Excelsior EU Bookmakers 12%
-5% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +11%
2.30/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/2.11
-1% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -2%
66% Ball Possession 34%
21 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 3
491 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 209 · 70%
36.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.1
21.0 Crosses 12.3
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Excelsior
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.28 xG 1.03
59% Ball Possession 41%
20 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 2
459 Passes 286
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
40 Box Touches 13
25 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
04.11.2023 Excelsior Excelsior 1-1 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
10.02.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 5-0 HT 5-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
11.01.2023 Excelsior Excelsior 1-4 HT 1-3 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOK
23.10.2022 Excelsior Excelsior 2-1 HT 2-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
15.05.2019 Excelsior Excelsior 4-2 HT 1-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
15.12.2018 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-1 HT 1-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar
4-0
AWAY Excelsior
1.97 xG 0.15
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 4
10 Shots on Target 0
3 Corners 0
484 Passes 330
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
33 Box Touches 10
14 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar ran out comfortable winners over Excelsior 4-0. Half-time: 3-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had AZ Alkmaar as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar had 58% of the ball to Excelsior's 42%, shots finished 16-4, expected goals 1.97 to 0.15.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.50 for Excelsior.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior?

AZ Alkmaar 4-0 Excelsior in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior?

Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 58%, draw 19%, Excelsior 23%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AZ Alkmaar), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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