Penybont 0-1 Cardiff MU — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Welsh Cup, 18 Oct 2024

Penybont
0-1
Cardiff MU
📅18/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Wales - Welsh Cup – 2024/2025

Penybont vs Cardiff MU Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.53
Draw
27%
4.08
Away
19%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.95
Over 2.5
46%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
24%
X/2
5%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
61%
-7.8pp
27%
Draw
21%
+6.0pp
19%
Away Win
18%
+1.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.2pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Penybont v Cardiff MU — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penybont EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Cardiff MU EU Bookmakers 21%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-47% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
380 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 240 · 70%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
3.0 Yellow Cards –

Penybont vs Cardiff MU Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penybont
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Cardiff MU
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
The Meetings
15.10.2024 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 1-1 HT 0-1 Penybont Penybont GAL
26.12.2023 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 0-3 HT 0-2 Penybont Penybont GAL
29.08.2023 Penybont Penybont 0-0 HT 0-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
31.03.2023 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 2-3 HT 1-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
17.02.2023 Penybont Penybont 2-1 HT 1-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
30.12.2022 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 0-0 HT 0-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
POST-MATCH Penybont vs Cardiff MU
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cardiff MU nicked a narrow win over Penybont 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Penybont at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (55%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penybont had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Penybont and 0.67 for Cardiff MU.

What was the final score of Penybont vs Cardiff MU?

Penybont 0-1 Cardiff MU in the Wales - Welsh Cup on 18/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penybont vs Cardiff MU?

Before kick-off our model rated a Penybont win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Penybont 53%, draw 27%, Cardiff MU 19%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Penybont) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Penybont) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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