Lechia Gdansk 0-2 Legia Varşova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 18 Oct 2024

📅18/10/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.75
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
51%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.1
Over 2.5
49%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.66
No
57%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.03
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.1
6+ Goals
9%
9.99
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.03 — our 29% vs market 19.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
6.3
1/2
7%
22.3
1/X
7%
14.15
X/1
9%
8.79
X/2
22%
4.29
X/X
9%
5.31
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
22%
2.31
2/X
7%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
23%
+2.0pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.2pp
51%
Away Win
52%
-1.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.8pp
43%
BTTS Yes
56%
-13.4pp
57%
BTTS No
44%
+13.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lechia Gdansk EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 56%
+6% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -3%
1.20/1.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.09
-22% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +25%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
269 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 84%
16.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
18.4 Crosses 21.1
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lechia Gdansk
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Legia Varşova
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.31 xG 1.69
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 9
296 Passes 367
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 32
19 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
20.05.2023 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 1-0 HT 0-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
08.11.2022 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 2-2 HT 1-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POLK
04.11.2022 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 2-1 HT 0-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
02.04.2022 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 2-1 HT 1-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
03.10.2021 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 3-1 HT 1-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
25.04.2021 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 0-1 HT 0-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lechia Gdansk
0-2
AWAY Legia Varşova
0.30 xG 2.13
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 3
379 Passes 361
81% Pass Accuracy 86%
17 Box Touches 39
16 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Varşova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Legia Varşova got the better of Lechia Gdansk 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Legia Varşova as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Lechia Gdansk had 52% of the ball to Legia Varşova's 48%, shots finished 8-19, expected goals 0.30 to 2.13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Legia Varşova led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.33 for Legia Varşova.

What was the final score of Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Varşova?

Lechia Gdansk 0-2 Legia Varşova in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 18/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Varşova?

Before kick-off our model rated an Legia Varşova win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Lechia Gdansk 25%, draw 24%, Legia Varşova 51%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Legia Varşova), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Legia Varşova) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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