Atletico Goianiense 1-0 Vila Nova — Result, Stats & Model Review (Brazil - Serie B, 18 Oct 2025)

Atletico Goianiense

1-0 HT 0-0

Vila Nova

📅18/10/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3

Top 2 Score Predictions

1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗

Brazil - Serie B – 2025

Atletico Goianiense vs Vila Nova Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions

Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend

⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.

Match Result

Home

45%

2.05

Draw

28%

2.88

Away

27%

3.63

Under/Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61%

1.45

Over 2.5

39%

2.61

Both Teams to Score

Yes

44%

2.27

56%

1.56

Total Goals

0-1 Goal

35%

1.98

2-3 Goals

43%

1.78

4-5 Goals

15%

5.9

6+ Goals

35.0

Half Time / Full Time

1/1

23%

1/2

1/X

X/1

17%

X/2

X/X

18%

2/1

2/2

14%

2/X

PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine

Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline

◎

Our call

Under 2.5 — 61% ✓

Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.

STRENGTH Under 2.5 Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.

Model vs Market — where we differ

iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers

46%

Home Win

45%

+0.8pp

28%

Draw

31%

-3.5pp

27%

Away Win

24%

+2.7pp

61%

Under 2.5

65%

-4.5pp

39%

Over 2.5

35%

+4.5pp

44%

BTTS Yes

40%

+3.7pp

56%

BTTS No

60%

-3.7pp

gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Goianiense v Vila Nova — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine

iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals

HOME Atletico Goianiense EU Bookmakers 49%

Head to Head

AWAY Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 28%

+2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -11%

1.25/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.17

+16% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +0%

50% Ball Possession 50%

14 Total Shots 9

5 Shots on Target 3

6 Corners 4

330 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 79%

23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8

25.9 Crosses 15.8

2.7 Yellow Cards 2.6

Atletico Goianiense vs Vila Nova Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings

Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings

HOME Atletico Goianiense

1W-2D-3L

AWAY Vila Nova

1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50

0.69 xG 0.91

49% Ball Possession 51%

11 Total Shots 12

4 Shots on Target 4

6 Corners 5

273 Passes 256

74% Pass Accuracy 73%

17 Box Touches 16

22 Crosses 18

2 Yellow Cards 2

The Meetings

28.06.2025 Vila Nova

1-0 HT 0-0

Atletico Goianiense BR2

29.10.2023 Vila Nova

2-1 HT 0-0

Atletico Goianiense BR2

01.07.2023 Atletico Goianiense

1-1 HT 0-0

Vila Nova BR2

23.03.2022 Vila Nova

1-1 HT 0-0

Atletico Goianiense BRGO1

19.03.2022 Atletico Goianiense

3-2 HT 3-1

Vila Nova BRGO1

19.02.2022 Atletico Goianiense

0-2 HT 0-1

Vila Nova BRGO1

Atletico Goianiense 1-0 Vila Nova — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result

Real recorded figures from this match

HOME Atletico Goianiense

1-0

AWAY Vila Nova

0.82 xG 0.69

47% Ball Possession 53%

16 Total Shots 10

4 Shots on Target 4

1 Corners 2

218 Passes 251

77% Pass Accuracy 80%

14 Box Touches 15

11 Crosses 18

4 Yellow Cards 6

POST-MATCH Atletico Goianiense vs Vila Nova

iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Goianiense nicked a narrow win over Vila Nova 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Atletico Goianiense as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Atletico Goianiense had 47% of the ball to Vila Nova's 53%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 0.82 to 0.69.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vila Nova led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Atletico Goianiense and 1.50 for Vila Nova.

What was the final score of Atletico Goianiense vs Vila Nova?

Atletico Goianiense 1-0 Vila Nova in the Brazil - Serie B on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Goianiense vs Vila Nova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Goianiense win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Atletico Goianiense 46%, draw 28%, Vila Nova 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Goianiense), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Goianiense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No

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