Vila Nova 1-0 Atletico Goianiense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 28 Jun 2025

📅28/06/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.46
Draw
32%
2.83
Away
26%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.41
Over 2.5
36%
2.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.27
No
60%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
1.92
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
15%
6.37
6+ Goals
8%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
19%
2/1
11%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 64%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
38%
+4.4pp
32%
Draw
32%
+0.1pp
26%
Away Win
30%
-4.5pp
64%
Under 2.5
67%
-3.0pp
36%
Over 2.5
33%
+3.0pp
40%
BTTS Yes
40%
-0.5pp
60%
BTTS No
60%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Goianiense EU Bookmakers 33%
+4% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -3%
1.35/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.24
-9% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
312 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 78%
16.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
20.9 Crosses 19.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vila Nova
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Atletico Goianiense
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.10 xG 0.70
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
286 Passes 301
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 3
29.10.2023 Vila Nova Vila Nova 2-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR2
01.07.2023 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 1-1 HT 0-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
23.03.2022 Vila Nova Vila Nova 1-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BRGO1
19.03.2022 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 3-2 HT 3-1 Vila Nova Vila Nova BRGO1
19.02.2022 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 0-2 HT 0-1 Vila Nova Vila Nova BRGO1
05.02.2022 Vila Nova Vila Nova 3-2 HT 1-0 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BRGO1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vila Nova
1-0
AWAY Atletico Goianiense
0.54 xG 0.67
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
197 Passes 218
66% Pass Accuracy 72%
13 Box Touches 15
14 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vila Nova vs Atletico Goianiense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vila Nova edged past Atletico Goianiense 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Vila Nova as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Vila Nova had 49% of the ball to Atletico Goianiense's 51%, shots finished 7-9, expected goals 0.54 to 0.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vila Nova had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Vila Nova and 1.33 for Atletico Goianiense.

What was the final score of Vila Nova vs Atletico Goianiense?

Vila Nova 1-0 Atletico Goianiense in the Brazil - Serie B on 28/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vila Nova vs Atletico Goianiense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vila Nova win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Vila Nova 42%, draw 32%, Atletico Goianiense 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vila Nova), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vila Nova) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR2 More Brazil - Serie B
28 Jun 2025
02:30 Criciuma vs Avai Analysis →