BG Pathum United 1-0 Ayutthaya United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Thailand - 1st Division, 18 Oct 2025

BG Pathum United
1-0 HT 1-0
Ayutthaya United
📅18/10/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Thailand - 1st Division – 2025/2026

BG Pathum United vs Ayutthaya United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.49
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
15%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.23
Over 2.5
56%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.68
No
44%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
3%
1/X
7%
X/1
22%
X/2
4%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
7%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
62%
-2.3pp
25%
Draw
20%
+4.8pp
15%
Away Win
17%
-2.5pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.8pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.4pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

BG Pathum United v Ayutthaya United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BG Pathum United EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Ayutthaya United EU Bookmakers 21%
+3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +63% / +63%
1.74/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.90
+21% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +87%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
367 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 79%
26.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
23.5 Crosses 6.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 3.0

BG Pathum United 1-0 Ayutthaya United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BG Pathum United
1-0
AWAY Ayutthaya United
1.46 xG 0.63
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
376 Passes 250
87% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH BG Pathum United vs Ayutthaya United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BG Pathum United edged past Ayutthaya United 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had BG Pathum United as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, BG Pathum United had 57% of the ball to Ayutthaya United's 43%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 1.46 to 0.63.

What was the final score of BG Pathum United vs Ayutthaya United?

BG Pathum United 1-0 Ayutthaya United in the Thailand - 1st Division on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BG Pathum United vs Ayutthaya United?

Before kick-off our model rated a BG Pathum United win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split BG Pathum United 60%, draw 25%, Ayutthaya United 15%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (BG Pathum United) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (BG Pathum United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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