Bright Stars 2-1 UPDF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 18 Dec 2024

📅18/12/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
33%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.52
Over 2.5
34%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
33%
2.13
No
67%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
47%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
14%
X/2
5%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
23%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-1.2pp
26%
Draw
30%
-4.1pp
33%
Away Win
28%
+5.3pp
66%
Under 2.5
62%
+3.8pp
34%
Over 2.5
38%
-3.8pp
33%
BTTS Yes
43%
-10.2pp
67%
BTTS No
57%
+10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bright Stars EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY UPDF EU Bookmakers 31%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
0.56/0.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.33
-49% / +63% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -23%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
336 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 229 · 68%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bright Stars
0W-1D-1L
AWAY UPDF
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
26.03.2022 Bright Stars Bright Stars 0-0 HT 0-0 UPDF UPDF UGA
05.12.2021 UPDF UPDF 2-1 HT 1-1 Bright Stars Bright Stars UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bright Stars
2-1
AWAY UPDF
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Bright Stars vs UPDF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bright Stars edged past UPDF 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Bright Stars as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (67%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bright Stars had 39% of the ball to UPDF's 61%, shots finished 10-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, UPDF led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Bright Stars and 1.00 for UPDF.

What was the final score of Bright Stars vs UPDF?

Bright Stars 2-1 UPDF in the Uganda - Premier League on 18/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bright Stars vs UPDF?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bright Stars win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Bright Stars 41%, draw 26%, UPDF 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bright Stars) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bright Stars) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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