Holstein Kiel 1-2 Braunschweig — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 19 Jan 2024

Holstein Kiel
1-2 HT 1-1
Braunschweig
📅19/01/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Holstein Kiel vs Braunschweig Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.76
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
32%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.03
Over 2.5
58%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.68
No
44%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.89
2-3 Goals
38%
1.82
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
28%
3.14
6+ Goals
13%
10.45
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.14 — our 28% vs market 26.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.28
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.65
X/1
10%
4.21
X/2
9%
8.82
X/X
11%
5.23
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
22.15
2/2
16%
6.41
2/X
7%
14.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.15 — our 12% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
53%
-8.6pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.8pp
32%
Away Win
23%
+9.3pp
42%
Under 2.5
45%
-3.2pp
58%
Over 2.5
55%
+3.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.8pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Holstein Kiel v Braunschweig — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Braunschweig EU Bookmakers 26%
-9% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -7%
2.02/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.59
-14% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / -3%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
415 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 240 · 70%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
24.0 Crosses 18.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3

Holstein Kiel vs Braunschweig Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Holstein Kiel
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Braunschweig
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.84 xG 0.75
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
427 Passes 230
82% Pass Accuracy 70%
25 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.07.2023 Braunschweig Braunschweig 0-1 HT 0-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
17.02.2023 Braunschweig Braunschweig 2-3 HT 0-2 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
13.08.2022 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 3-0 HT 1-0 Braunschweig Braunschweig AL2
30.01.2021 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 3-1 HT 3-0 Braunschweig Braunschweig AL2
26.09.2020 Braunschweig Braunschweig 0-0 HT 0-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
13.05.2018 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 6-2 HT 4-2 Braunschweig Braunschweig AL2

Holstein Kiel 1-2 Braunschweig — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Holstein Kiel
1-2
AWAY Braunschweig
1.90 xG 2.03
64% Ball Possession 36%
25 Total Shots 16
9 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
466 Passes 215
81% Pass Accuracy 70%
35 Box Touches 29
18 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Holstein Kiel vs Braunschweig
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Braunschweig squeezed past Holstein Kiel 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Holstein Kiel at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Holstein Kiel had 64% of the ball to Braunschweig's 36%, shots finished 25-16, expected goals 1.90 to 2.03.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Holstein Kiel had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Holstein Kiel and 0.83 for Braunschweig.

What was the final score of Holstein Kiel vs Braunschweig?

Holstein Kiel 1-2 Braunschweig in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 19/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Holstein Kiel vs Braunschweig?

Before kick-off our model rated a Holstein Kiel win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Holstein Kiel 44%, draw 24%, Braunschweig 32%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Holstein Kiel) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Holstein Kiel) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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