Sydney 4-0 Newcastle Jets — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 19 Jan 2024

Sydney
4-0 HT 1-0
Newcastle Jets
📅19/01/2024 · 🕒11:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Sydney vs Newcastle Jets Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.53
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
3.59
Over 2.5
62%
1.26
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.41
No
43%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
8.25
2-3 Goals
35%
2.33
4-5 Goals
28%
2.34
6+ Goals
17%
3.96
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.87
1/2
5%
39.0
1/X
9%
14.75
X/1
14%
4.31
X/2
9%
11.35
X/X
9%
7.76
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
17.45
2/2
9%
6.85
2/X
5%
14.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 17.45 — our 8% vs market 3.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
61%
-7.0pp
23%
Draw
20%
+3.3pp
23%
Away Win
19%
+3.7pp
38%
Under 2.5
24%
+13.8pp
62%
Over 2.5
76%
-13.8pp
57%
BTTS Yes
67%
-10.0pp
43%
BTTS No
33%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sydney v Newcastle Jets — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sydney EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle Jets EU Bookmakers 22%
-4% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
2.13/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.68
-13% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +3%
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
414 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 79%
37.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
20.7 Crosses 17.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.9

Sydney vs Newcastle Jets Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sydney
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Newcastle Jets
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.90 xG 1.20
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
371 Passes 413
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
33 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
29.04.2023 Sydney Sydney 2-0 HT 1-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
01.01.2023 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 0-2 HT 0-2 Sydney Sydney AVUS
25.03.2022 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 2-0 HT 2-0 Sydney Sydney AVUS
04.12.2021 Sydney Sydney 2-2 HT 2-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
08.05.2021 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 1-1 HT 0-0 Sydney Sydney AVUS
13.03.2021 Sydney Sydney 2-1 HT 0-1 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS

Sydney 4-0 Newcastle Jets — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sydney
4-0
AWAY Newcastle Jets
1.88 xG 0.45
60% Ball Possession 40%
22 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 6
417 Passes 232
84% Pass Accuracy 73%
40 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Sydney vs Newcastle Jets
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sydney cruised past Newcastle Jets 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sydney as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (62%) landed while both teams to score (57%) missed.

On the day, Sydney had 60% of the ball to Newcastle Jets's 40%, shots finished 22-6, expected goals 1.88 to 0.45.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sydney had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sydney and 1.00 for Newcastle Jets.

What was the final score of Sydney vs Newcastle Jets?

Sydney 4-0 Newcastle Jets in the Australia - A-League on 19/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sydney vs Newcastle Jets?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sydney win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Sydney 54%, draw 23%, Newcastle Jets 23%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sydney), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sydney) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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