Wellington Phoenix 1-1 Melbourne Victory — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 19 Jan 2024

Wellington Phoenix
1-1 HT 0-0
Melbourne Victory
📅19/01/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.8
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
43%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.07
Over 2.5
51%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.71
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
25%
3.18
6+ Goals
11%
11.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
4.34
1/2
7%
24.3
1/X
7%
13.2
X/1
7%
6.38
X/2
14%
4.91
X/X
10%
4.98
2/1
6%
30.5
2/2
23%
3.02
2/X
7%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
32%
+0.2pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.2pp
43%
Away Win
42%
+0.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-4.6pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne Victory — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wellington Phoenix EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne Victory EU Bookmakers 46%
+9% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -4%
1.49/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.17
+4% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +33%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
343 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 416 · 83%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.8
15.1 Crosses 16.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.9

Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wellington Phoenix
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Melbourne Victory
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.89 xG 1.73
49% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
428 Passes 411
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
15 Box Touches 33
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.11.2023 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 1-1 HT 1-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
01.04.2023 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-2 HT 1-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
03.02.2023 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 3-1 HT 1-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
29.04.2022 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 3-1 HT 1-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
09.02.2022 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
29.01.2022 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 4-1 HT 0-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUK

Wellington Phoenix 1-1 Melbourne Victory — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wellington Phoenix
1-1
AWAY Melbourne Victory
1.43 xG 2.59
37% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 15
258 Passes 501
77% Pass Accuracy 88%
18 Box Touches 51
11 Crosses 33
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne Victory shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Melbourne Victory at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Wellington Phoenix had 37% of the ball to Melbourne Victory's 63%, shots finished 10-19, expected goals 1.43 to 2.59.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne Victory led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Wellington Phoenix and 2.17 for Melbourne Victory.

What was the final score of Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory?

Wellington Phoenix 1-1 Melbourne Victory in the Australia - A-League on 19/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne Victory win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Wellington Phoenix 32%, draw 24%, Melbourne Victory 43%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Melbourne Victory), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Melbourne Victory) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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