Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-5 Venados — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 19 Jan 2024

Tepatitlán de Morelos
0-5 HT 0-2
Venados
📅19/01/2024 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera A – 2023/2024

Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Venados Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.33
Draw
34%
3.28
Away
19%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.91
Over 2.5
38%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.68
No
57%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
20%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
39%
+7.4pp
34%
Draw
27%
+7.4pp
19%
Away Win
34%
-14.7pp
62%
Under 2.5
48%
+14.1pp
38%
Over 2.5
52%
-14.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
56%
-12.0pp
57%
BTTS No
44%
+12.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Tepatitlán de Morelos v Venados — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Venados EU Bookmakers 37%
+2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.27/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/0.97
-9% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / +29%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
286 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
3.5 Yellow Cards –

Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Venados Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Venados
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
The Meetings
28.09.2023 Venados Venados 5-1 HT 2-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
05.01.2023 Venados Venados 1-0 HT 1-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
20.10.2022 Venados Venados 4-2 HT 4-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
16.09.2022 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-2 HT 0-0 Venados Venados MEK2
24.03.2022 Venados Venados 0-0 HT 0-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
25.08.2021 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-0 HT 0-0 Venados Venados MEK2
POST-MATCH Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Venados
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Venados swept aside Tepatitlán de Morelos 5-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Tepatitlán de Morelos at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, no to both teams scoring (57%) landed while under 2.5 goals (62%) missed.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Venados led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Tepatitlán de Morelos and 2.00 for Venados.

What was the final score of Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Venados?

Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-5 Venados in the Mexico - Primera A on 19/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Venados?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tepatitlán de Morelos win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Tepatitlán de Morelos 47%, draw 34%, Venados 19%. The final score 0-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Tepatitlán de Morelos), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tepatitlán de Morelos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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