Merida AD 4-2 Marbella — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 19 Jan 2025

📅19/01/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.19
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
30%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.59
Over 2.5
46%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.99
No
51%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.32
2-3 Goals
37%
1.72
4-5 Goals
21%
4.58
6+ Goals
11%
26.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-1.4pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.0pp
30%
Away Win
30%
-0.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
59%
-4.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
41%
+4.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
46%
+2.7pp
51%
BTTS No
54%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Merida AD EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Marbella EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -16%
1.23/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.54
-3% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -26%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
274 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Merida AD
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Marbella
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 2
6 Yellow Cards 1
29.09.2024 Marbella Marbella 1-0 HT 0-0 Merida AD Merida AD İS3
02.02.2020 Merida AD Merida AD 0-0 HT 0-0 Marbella Marbella İS3
15.09.2019 Marbella Marbella 3-2 HT 1-1 Merida AD Merida AD İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Merida AD
4-2
AWAY Marbella
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Merida AD vs Marbella
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Merida AD got the better of Marbella 4-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 30%) promised a tight game; Merida AD found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Merida AD had 50% of the ball to Marbella's 50%, shots finished 9-8.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Marbella led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Merida AD and 1.33 for Marbella.

What was the final score of Merida AD vs Marbella?

Merida AD 4-2 Marbella in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 19/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Merida AD vs Marbella?

Before kick-off our model rated a Merida AD win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Merida AD 40%, draw 30%, Marbella 30%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Merida AD) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Merida AD) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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