Nacional Asuncion 2-1 Sportivo Trinidense — Result, Stats & Model Review (Paraguay - Profesyonel League, 19 Feb 2024)

Nacional Asuncion

2-1 HT 1-1

Sportivo Trinidense

📅19/02/2024 · 🕒02:45 Istanbul · GMT+3

Top 2 Score Predictions

1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗

Paraguay - Profesyonel League – 2024

Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Trinidense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions

Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend

⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.

Match Result

Home

38%

2.02

Draw

27%

3.28

Away

35%

3.25

Under/Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53%

1.74

Over 2.5

47%

2.0

Both Teams to Score

Yes

46%

1.85

54%

1.85

Total Goals

0-1 Goal

29%

2-3 Goals

41%

4-5 Goals

21%

6+ Goals

Half Time / Full Time

1/1

16%

1/2

1/X

X/1

15%

X/2

X/X

13%

2/1

2/2

22%

2/X

PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine

Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline

✋

Decision

No Bet — Skip This Match

The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.

Model vs Market — where we differ

iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers

38%

Home Win

46%

-7.5pp

27%

Draw

27%

-0.3pp

35%

Away Win

27%

+7.8pp

53%

Under 2.5

54%

-0.6pp

47%

Over 2.5

46%

+0.6pp

46%

BTTS Yes

50%

-3.7pp

54%

BTTS No

50%

+3.7pp

gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nacional Asuncion v Sportivo Trinidense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine

iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals

HOME Nacional Asuncion EU Bookmakers 50%

Head to Head

AWAY Sportivo Trinidense EU Bookmakers 31%

-5% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +24%

1.45/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.90/1.13

+8% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +87% / +20%

55% Ball Possession 45%

11 Total Shots 10

4 Shots on Target 4

5 Corners 4

334 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 239 · 72%

– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –

– Crosses –

1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3

Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Trinidense Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings

Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings

HOME Nacional Asuncion

0W-1D-3L

AWAY Sportivo Trinidense

0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50

50% Ball Possession 50%

13 Total Shots 9

5 Shots on Target 5

5 Corners 3

1 Yellow Cards 1

The Meetings

14.11.2023 Sportivo Trinidense

1-1 HT 1-0

Nacional Asuncion PAR

04.09.2023 Nacional Asuncion

1-2 HT 1-1

Sportivo Trinidense PAR

11.06.2023 Sportivo Trinidense

2-1 HT 1-0

Nacional Asuncion PAR

09.04.2023 Nacional Asuncion

0-1 HT 0-1

Sportivo Trinidense PAR

Nacional Asuncion 2-1 Sportivo Trinidense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result

Real recorded figures from this match

HOME Nacional Asuncion

2-1

AWAY Sportivo Trinidense

44% Ball Possession 56%

8 Total Shots 18

2 Shots on Target 4

2 Corners 6

3 Yellow Cards 3

POST-MATCH Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Trinidense

iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional Asuncion edged past Sportivo Trinidense 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; Nacional Asuncion found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Nacional Asuncion had 44% of the ball to Sportivo Trinidense's 56%, shots finished 8-18.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Sportivo Trinidense led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Nacional Asuncion and 1.50 for Sportivo Trinidense.

What was the final score of Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Trinidense?

Nacional Asuncion 2-1 Sportivo Trinidense in the Paraguay - Profesyonel League on 19/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Trinidense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional Asuncion win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Nacional Asuncion 38%, draw 27%, Sportivo Trinidense 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional Asuncion) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nacional Asuncion) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No

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