Nürnberg 0-2 Paderborn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 19 Apr 2024

Nürnberg
0-2 HT 0-1
Paderborn
📅19/04/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Nürnberg vs Paderborn Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.67
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
46%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.33
Over 2.5
52%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.49
No
51%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.98
2-3 Goals
37%
1.95
4-5 Goals
26%
2.77
6+ Goals
12%
7.31
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.14
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
22.7
1/X
7%
12.4
X/1
10%
6.75
X/2
16%
5.31
X/X
9%
5.49
2/1
6%
28.0
2/2
21%
2.96
2/X
5%
12.2
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.7 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
33%
-0.8pp
21%
Draw
25%
-3.5pp
46%
Away Win
42%
+4.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
39%
+9.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
61%
-9.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
63%
-13.7pp
51%
BTTS No
37%
+13.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nürnberg v Paderborn — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nürnberg EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Paderborn EU Bookmakers 46%
+4% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +0%
1.36/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.71/1.30
-2% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +20%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
257 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 415 · 81%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.9
19.2 Crosses 16.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3

Nürnberg vs Paderborn Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nürnberg
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Paderborn
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.49 xG 1.58
40% Ball Possession 60%
14 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
238 Passes 397
73% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.11.2023 Paderborn Paderborn 1-3 HT 0-3 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
28.05.2023 Paderborn Paderborn 0-1 HT 0-1 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
13.11.2022 Nürnberg Nürnberg 2-1 HT 1-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
15.01.2022 Nürnberg Nürnberg 1-2 HT 0-2 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
30.07.2021 Paderborn Paderborn 2-2 HT 1-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
04.04.2021 Nürnberg Nürnberg 2-1 HT 1-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2

Nürnberg 0-2 Paderborn — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nürnberg
0-2
AWAY Paderborn
2.13 xG 1.49
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 5
514 Passes 312
89% Pass Accuracy 81%
39 Box Touches 20
32 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Nürnberg vs Paderborn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paderborn got the better of Nürnberg 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Paderborn as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Nürnberg had 61% of the ball to Paderborn's 39%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 2.13 to 1.49 — on chances, Nürnberg could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nürnberg had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Nürnberg and 1.17 for Paderborn.

What was the final score of Nürnberg vs Paderborn?

Nürnberg 0-2 Paderborn in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 19/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nürnberg vs Paderborn?

Before kick-off our model rated an Paderborn win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Nürnberg 32%, draw 21%, Paderborn 46%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paderborn), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Paderborn) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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