Newcastle Jets 1-1 Wellington Phoenix — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 19 Apr 2024

📅19/04/2024 · 🕒12:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
36%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.23
Over 2.5
54%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.53
No
43%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.57
2-3 Goals
43%
1.9
4-5 Goals
22%
2.88
6+ Goals
14%
8.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.12
1/2
6%
22.7
1/X
9%
13.25
X/1
11%
6.46
X/2
11%
5.08
X/X
12%
5.58
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
28.0
2/2
19%
2.97
2/X
6%
13.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.0 — our 9% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
34%
+3.3pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.1pp
36%
Away Win
42%
-6.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
61%
-4.0pp
43%
BTTS No
39%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle Jets EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Wellington Phoenix EU Bookmakers 46%
-7% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.54/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.74/1.30
-16% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -6%
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
338 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 403 · 82%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.0
19.7 Crosses 15.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle Jets
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.62 xG 1.58
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
453 Passes 432
86% Pass Accuracy 85%
30 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.01.2024 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 1-2 HT 0-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
09.12.2023 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 0-3 HT 0-2 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
04.03.2023 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 2-1 HT 2-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
22.10.2022 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 3-1 HT 3-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
18.03.2022 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 4-0 HT 0-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
09.03.2022 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 3-2 HT 2-1 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle Jets
1-1
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
1.41 xG 3.84
36% Ball Possession 64%
18 Total Shots 22
1 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 11
240 Passes 486
80% Pass Accuracy 87%
30 Box Touches 52
23 Crosses 32
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle Jets and Wellington Phoenix shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (37% / 27% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged both teams to score (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Newcastle Jets had 36% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix's 64%, shots finished 18-22, expected goals 1.41 to 3.84.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Newcastle Jets and 1.33 for Wellington Phoenix.

What was the final score of Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix?

Newcastle Jets 1-1 Wellington Phoenix in the Australia - A-League on 19/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newcastle Jets win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Newcastle Jets 37%, draw 27%, Wellington Phoenix 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Newcastle Jets), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Newcastle Jets) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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