Newcastle Jets 1-2 Wellington Phoenix — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 27 Jan 2024

Newcastle Jets
1-2 HT 0-1
Wellington Phoenix
📅27/01/2024 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
30%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.29
Over 2.5
56%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.49
No
42%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.76
2-3 Goals
40%
1.91
4-5 Goals
26%
2.76
6+ Goals
13%
7.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.0
1/2
7%
27.0
1/X
10%
12.75
X/1
15%
5.22
X/2
9%
6.39
X/X
11%
5.63
2/1
7%
22.6
2/2
14%
3.96
2/X
7%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
+0.2pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.9pp
30%
Away Win
33%
-3.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
40%
+4.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
60%
-4.5pp
58%
BTTS Yes
63%
-5.1pp
42%
BTTS No
37%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newcastle Jets v Wellington Phoenix — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle Jets EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Wellington Phoenix EU Bookmakers 37%
-7% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +3%
1.76/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/1.28
+12% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +10%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
346 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 79%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.4
18.5 Crosses 16.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6

Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle Jets
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.84 xG 1.33
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
456 Passes 425
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
31 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.12.2023 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 0-3 HT 0-2 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
04.03.2023 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 2-1 HT 2-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
22.10.2022 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 3-1 HT 3-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
18.03.2022 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 4-0 HT 0-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
09.03.2022 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 3-2 HT 2-1 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
10.12.2021 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 4-0 HT 1-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS

Newcastle Jets 1-2 Wellington Phoenix — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle Jets
1-2
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
1.20 xG 2.01
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 7
9 Corners 8
475 Passes 351
89% Pass Accuracy 85%
27 Box Touches 26
36 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wellington Phoenix edged past Newcastle Jets 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Newcastle Jets at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Newcastle Jets had 57% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix's 43%, shots finished 17-16, expected goals 1.20 to 2.01.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle Jets had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Newcastle Jets and 1.00 for Wellington Phoenix.

What was the final score of Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix?

Newcastle Jets 1-2 Wellington Phoenix in the Australia - A-League on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newcastle Jets win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Newcastle Jets 42%, draw 28%, Wellington Phoenix 30%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Newcastle Jets) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Newcastle Jets) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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