Sturm Graz 1-0 Rapid Wien — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 19 Apr 2024

Sturm Graz
1-0 HT 0-0
Rapid Wien
📅19/04/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
Austria - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Sturm Graz vs Rapid Wien Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.86
Draw
31%
3.54
Away
30%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.86
Over 2.5
40%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.76
No
58%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
35%
3.28
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.59
6+ Goals
8%
14.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 35% vs market 24.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.51
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.3
X/1
19%
4.19
X/2
11%
7.79
X/X
15%
4.87
2/1
6%
24.0
2/2
13%
5.95
2/X
7%
14.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
50%
-11.1pp
31%
Draw
25%
+5.9pp
30%
Away Win
25%
+5.1pp
60%
Under 2.5
50%
+10.2pp
40%
Over 2.5
50%
-10.2pp
42%
BTTS Yes
53%
-10.9pp
58%
BTTS No
47%
+10.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sturm Graz v Rapid Wien — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Rapid Wien EU Bookmakers 28%
+4% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -8%
1.69/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.65
+13% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -7%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
318 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 69%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
20.5 Crosses 18.1
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.8

Sturm Graz vs Rapid Wien Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sturm Graz
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Rapid Wien
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.27 xG 1.41
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
242 Passes 259
69% Pass Accuracy 71%
23 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.02.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-1 HT 1-1 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AVU
24.09.2023 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 1-1 HT 1-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
28.05.2023 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 3-2 HT 2-2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
30.04.2023 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 0-2 HT 0-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AUK
02.04.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 3-1 HT 2-1 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AVU
10.02.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-0 HT 0-0 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AVU

Sturm Graz 1-0 Rapid Wien — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sturm Graz
1-0
AWAY Rapid Wien
2.30 xG 0.61
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 1
362 Passes 291
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
21 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz vs Rapid Wien
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz squeezed past Rapid Wien 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 31% / 30%) promised a tight game; Sturm Graz found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Sturm Graz had 54% of the ball to Rapid Wien's 46%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 2.30 to 0.61 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sturm Graz's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sturm Graz and 1.00 for Rapid Wien.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Rapid Wien?

Sturm Graz 1-0 Rapid Wien in the Austria - Bundesliga on 19/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz vs Rapid Wien?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz 39%, draw 31%, Rapid Wien 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sturm Graz), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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