Smorgon 2-2 Gomel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 19 Apr 2024

📅19/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.46
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
41%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.49
2-3 Goals
43%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.42
6+ Goals
10%
12.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.49 — our 26% vs market 23.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
20%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
26%
+5.9pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.5pp
41%
Away Win
50%
-8.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.6pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Smorgon EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Gomel EU Bookmakers 54%
+27% / +27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -4%
1.32/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/1.29
+17% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -27%
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
241 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 398 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Smorgon
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Gomel
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
39% Ball Possession 61%
6 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 10
4 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 2
22.10.2023 Smorgon Smorgon 0-3 HT 0-0 Gomel Gomel BLR
26.05.2023 Gomel Gomel 2-0 HT 0-0 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
20.11.2021 Gomel Gomel 0-0 HT 0-0 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
26.06.2021 Smorgon Smorgon 1-2 HT 1-0 Gomel Gomel BLR
27.06.2020 Gomel Gomel 1-1 HT 0-1 Smorgon Smorgon BLR1
27.07.2019 Smorgon Smorgon 1-4 HT 0-3 Gomel Gomel BLRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Smorgon
2-2
AWAY Gomel
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Smorgon vs Gomel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Smorgon and Gomel shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Gomel at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Smorgon had 47% of the ball to Gomel's 53%, shots finished 11-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gomel led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Smorgon and 2.00 for Gomel.

What was the final score of Smorgon vs Gomel?

Smorgon 2-2 Gomel in the Belarus - Premier League on 19/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Smorgon vs Gomel?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gomel win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Smorgon 31%, draw 27%, Gomel 41%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gomel) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BLR More Belarus - Premier League
19 Apr 2024
19:30 BATE Borisov vs Dnepr Mogilev Analysis →