Velez Mostar 3-1 Zvijezda 09 Brgule — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bosnia and Herzegovina - Premier League, 19 Apr 2024

📅19/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.22
Draw
18%
5.71
Away
16%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.59
Over 2.5
56%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
42%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
18%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
4%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
77%
-11.0pp
18%
Draw
14%
+3.7pp
16%
Away Win
8%
+7.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
35%
+8.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
65%
-8.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.5pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Velez Mostar EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Zvijezda 09 Brgule EU Bookmakers 11%
-7% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.97/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.64/2.81
-16% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -31%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
398 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 255 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Velez Mostar
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Zvijezda 09 Brgule
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
29.10.2023 Zvijezda 09 Brgule Zvijezda 09 Brgule 0-0 HT 0-0 Velez Mostar Velez Mostar BOSN
29.07.2023 Velez Mostar Velez Mostar 5-0 HT 3-0 Zvijezda 09 Brgule Zvijezda 09 Brgule BOSN
06.10.2021 Zvijezda 09 Brgule Zvijezda 09 Brgule 0-3 HT 0-1 Velez Mostar Velez Mostar BOSK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Velez Mostar
3-1
AWAY Zvijezda 09 Brgule
66% Ball Possession 34%
22 Total Shots 9
13 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Velez Mostar vs Zvijezda 09 Brgule
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Velez Mostar saw off Zvijezda 09 Brgule 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Velez Mostar as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Velez Mostar had 66% of the ball to Zvijezda 09 Brgule's 34%, shots finished 22-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Velez Mostar had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Velez Mostar and 0.00 for Zvijezda 09 Brgule.

What was the final score of Velez Mostar vs Zvijezda 09 Brgule?

Velez Mostar 3-1 Zvijezda 09 Brgule in the Bosnia and Herzegovina - Premier League on 19/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Velez Mostar vs Zvijezda 09 Brgule?

Before kick-off our model rated a Velez Mostar win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Velez Mostar 66%, draw 18%, Zvijezda 09 Brgule 16%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Velez Mostar), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Velez Mostar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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BOSN More Bosnia and Herzegovina - Premier League
19 Apr 2024
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