Winchester City 4-1 Chertsey Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
2.25
Draw
32%
3.64
Away
43%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under
54%
2.23
Over
46%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
59%
1.46
No
41%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1
22%
2-3
44%
4-5
18%
6+
16%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
5%
1/X
12%
X/1
9%
X/2
18%
X/X
8%
2/1
5%
2/2
20%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
41%
-15.9pp
32%
Draw
24%
+8.1pp
43%
Away Win
35%
+7.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
41%
+12.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
59%
-12.9pp
59%
BTTS Yes
64%
-5.7pp
41%
BTTS No
36%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Winchester City EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Chertsey Town EU Bookmakers 38%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.18/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.52
-22% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
289 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Winchester City
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Chertsey Town
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
39% Ball Possession 61%
16 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 4
07.09.2024 Chertsey Town Chertsey Town 3-3 HT 1-3 Winchester City Winchester City İNGNLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Winchester City
4-1
AWAY Chertsey Town
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Winchester City vs Chertsey Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Winchester City swept aside Chertsey Town 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Chertsey Town at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Winchester City had 49% of the ball to Chertsey Town's 51%, shots finished 10-13.

What was the final score of Winchester City vs Chertsey Town?

Winchester City 4-1 Chertsey Town in the England - Non League Premier on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Winchester City vs Chertsey Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Chertsey Town win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Winchester City 25%, draw 32%, Chertsey Town 43%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Chertsey Town), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chertsey Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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