Karabağ 3-0 Neftçi PFK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.33
Draw
24%
4.81
Away
20%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.23
Over 2.5
56%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.85
No
46%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
30%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
25%
X/2
8%
X/X
9%
2/1
13%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
71%
-14.5pp
24%
Draw
18%
+6.0pp
20%
Away Win
12%
+8.5pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.9pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
50%
+4.1pp
46%
BTTS No
50%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karabağ EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 15%
-5% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
2.71/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/2.25
+48% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -11%
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
413 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 237 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Karabağ
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Neftçi PFK
3.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
16.02.2025 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 0-1 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
01.12.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 0-3 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
20.09.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 4-0 HT 3-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
24.04.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 4-1 HT 1-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERK
02.04.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 0-4 HT 0-3 Karabağ Karabağ AZERK
03.03.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-4 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
POST-MATCH Karabağ vs Neftçi PFK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ cruised past Neftçi PFK 3-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 3.33 goals for Karabağ and 0.33 for Neftçi PFK.

What was the final score of Karabağ vs Neftçi PFK?

Karabağ 3-0 Neftçi PFK in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karabağ vs Neftçi PFK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Karabağ 56%, draw 24%, Neftçi PFK 20%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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