Albirex Niigata 1-2 Kyoto Sanga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.47
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
34%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.64
Over 2.5
53%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.88
No
49%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.6
2-3 Goals
43%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
22%
4.35
6+ Goals
10%
22.45
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.35 — our 22% vs market 17.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.93
1/2
7%
33.5
1/X
7%
13.45
X/1
13%
5.56
X/2
15%
5.76
X/X
13%
4.02
2/1
8%
32.5
2/2
12%
4.14
2/X
7%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+1.3pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.7pp
34%
Away Win
34%
+0.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
57%
-10.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
43%
+10.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.1pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Kyoto Sanga EU Bookmakers 37%
-7% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.06/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.38
-10% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -36%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
422 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 74%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
18.7 Crosses 21.5
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Albirex Niigata
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Kyoto Sanga
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.16 xG 1.05
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
430 Passes 253
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
23 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.08.2024 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 2-0 HT 1-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
20.04.2024 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 0-1 HT 0-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
28.10.2023 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 0-1 HT 0-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
11.06.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-3 HT 0-1 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
17.07.2021 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 1-1 HT 1-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP2
23.05.2021 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-1 HT 0-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Albirex Niigata
1-2
AWAY Kyoto Sanga
1.64 xG 0.74
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 8
239 Passes 225
73% Pass Accuracy 69%
25 Box Touches 20
11 Crosses 26
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Albirex Niigata vs Kyoto Sanga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kyoto Sanga nicked a narrow win over Albirex Niigata 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 28% / 34% — and on the day Kyoto Sanga made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Albirex Niigata had 49% of the ball to Kyoto Sanga's 51%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 1.64 to 0.74 — the balance of chances actually favoured Albirex Niigata.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Albirex Niigata had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Albirex Niigata and 0.83 for Kyoto Sanga.

What was the final score of Albirex Niigata vs Kyoto Sanga?

Albirex Niigata 1-2 Kyoto Sanga in the Japan - J1 League on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Albirex Niigata vs Kyoto Sanga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Albirex Niigata win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Albirex Niigata 38%, draw 28%, Kyoto Sanga 34%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Albirex Niigata) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Albirex Niigata) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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