AS Marsa 1-0 AS Ariana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Tunisia - 2nd Division Yükselme, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.49
Draw
31%
3.8
Away
21%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.78
Over 2.5
48%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.13
No
50%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
23%
X/2
8%
X/X
18%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
63%
-14.6pp
30%
Draw
23%
+7.4pp
21%
Away Win
14%
+7.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
43%
+7.5pp
50%
BTTS No
57%
-7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AS Marsa EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY AS Ariana EU Bookmakers 17%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.57/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.46
-1% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +145% / -7%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 2
348 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 4.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AS Marsa
0W-0D-1L
AWAY AS Ariana
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
07.12.2024 AS Ariana 2-1 AS Marsa AS Marsa TUN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AS Marsa
1-0
AWAY AS Ariana
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 1
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH AS Marsa vs AS Ariana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AS Marsa squeezed past AS Ariana 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had AS Marsa as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, AS Marsa had 58% of the ball to AS Ariana's 42%, shots finished 13-5.

What was the final score of AS Marsa vs AS Ariana?

AS Marsa 1-0 AS Ariana in the Tunisia - 2nd Division Yükselme on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AS Marsa vs AS Ariana?

Before kick-off our model rated a AS Marsa win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split AS Marsa 48%, draw 30%, AS Ariana 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AS Marsa), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AS Marsa) ✓ Under 2.5
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