Citizen AA 2-5 Shatin SA — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division, 19 May 2024

📅19/05/2024 · 🕒10:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
36%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.98
Over 2.5
59%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.32
No
39%
3.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
6%
2/1
5%
2/2
21%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
40%
+0.5pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.0pp
36%
Away Win
36%
-0.5pp
41%
Under 2.5
30%
+10.5pp
59%
Over 2.5
70%
-10.5pp
61%
BTTS Yes
72%
-10.2pp
39%
BTTS No
28%
+10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Citizen AA EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Shatin SA EU Bookmakers 40%
-23% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
0.97/1.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.96
-43% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -30%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
361 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Citizen AA
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Shatin SA
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
38% Ball Possession 62%
6 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 8
0 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.12.2023 Shatin SA Shatin SA 1-1 HT 0-0 Citizen AA Citizen AA HK2
18.12.2022 Shatin SA Shatin SA 2-1 HT 2-0 Citizen AA Citizen AA HK2
17.10.2021 Shatin SA Shatin SA 2-1 HT 2-0 Citizen AA Citizen AA HK2
POST-MATCH Citizen AA vs Shatin SA
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shatin SA ran out comfortable winners over Citizen AA 5-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (41% / 23% / 36%) promised a tight game; Shatin SA found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (61%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Shatin SA led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Citizen AA and 1.67 for Shatin SA.

What was the final score of Citizen AA vs Shatin SA?

Citizen AA 2-5 Shatin SA in the Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Citizen AA vs Shatin SA?

Before kick-off our model rated a Citizen AA win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Citizen AA 41%, draw 23%, Shatin SA 36%. The final score 2-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Citizen AA) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Citizen AA) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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