Shakhter Karagandy 1-0 Tobol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kazakistan - Super League, 19 May 2024

📅19/05/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.32
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
38%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.64
Over 2.5
34%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.96
No
60%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
18%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
27%
+8.1pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
39%
Away Win
47%
-8.4pp
66%
Under 2.5
57%
+8.3pp
34%
Over 2.5
43%
-8.4pp
40%
BTTS Yes
47%
-6.5pp
60%
BTTS No
53%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shakhter Karagandy EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Tobol EU Bookmakers 51%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +0%
1.31/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.10
+40% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -33%
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
239 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.8 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shakhter Karagandy
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Tobol
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
30.09.2023 Shakhter Karagandy Shakhter Karagandy 2-1 HT 0-1 Tobol Tobol KAZP
07.06.2023 Shakhter Karagandy Shakhter Karagandy 1-0 HT 0-0 Tobol Tobol KAZKK
17.05.2023 Tobol Tobol 2-0 HT 0-0 Shakhter Karagandy Shakhter Karagandy KAZKK
14.03.2023 Tobol Tobol 2-1 HT 1-0 Shakhter Karagandy Shakhter Karagandy KAZP
02.10.2022 Tobol Tobol 3-1 HT 1-1 Shakhter Karagandy Shakhter Karagandy KAZP
02.05.2022 Shakhter Karagandy Shakhter Karagandy 4-1 HT 1-0 Tobol Tobol KAZP
POST-MATCH Shakhter Karagandy vs Tobol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shakhter Karagandy squeezed past Tobol 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 27% / 39% — and on the day Shakhter Karagandy made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Shakhter Karagandy and 1.50 for Tobol.

What was the final score of Shakhter Karagandy vs Tobol?

Shakhter Karagandy 1-0 Tobol in the Kazakistan - Super League on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shakhter Karagandy vs Tobol?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tobol win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Shakhter Karagandy 35%, draw 27%, Tobol 39%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Tobol) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tobol) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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