Lechia Gdansk 2-1 Arka Gdynia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 19 May 2024

Lechia Gdansk
2-1 HT 1-1
Arka Gdynia
📅19/05/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Poland - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.33
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
36%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.8
Over 2.5
52%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.7
No
45%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.22
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.65
6+ Goals
11%
15.0
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.65 — our 25% vs market 22.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
39%
-0.1pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.6pp
36%
Away Win
32%
+3.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
55%
+0.3pp
45%
BTTS No
45%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lechia Gdansk v Arka Gdynia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lechia Gdansk EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Arka Gdynia EU Bookmakers 36%
+43% / +43% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / -2%
2.81/0.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.25
+98% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +10%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
285 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5

Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lechia Gdansk
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Arka Gdynia
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
452 Passes 251
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
24.11.2023 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 1-0 HT 0-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL1
31.05.2020 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 4-3 HT 0-0 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POL
20.10.2019 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 2-2 HT 0-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
02.04.2019 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 0-0 HT 0-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
27.10.2018 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 2-1 HT 1-1 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POL
13.04.2018 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 1-2 HT 1-2 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL

Lechia Gdansk 2-1 Arka Gdynia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lechia Gdansk
2-1
AWAY Arka Gdynia
33% Ball Possession 67%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lechia Gdansk nicked a narrow win over Arka Gdynia 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 25% / 36%) promised a tight game; Lechia Gdansk found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Lechia Gdansk had 33% of the ball to Arka Gdynia's 67%, shots finished 8-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lechia Gdansk had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.33 for Arka Gdynia.

What was the final score of Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia?

Lechia Gdansk 2-1 Arka Gdynia in the Poland - 1st Division on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lechia Gdansk win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Lechia Gdansk 39%, draw 25%, Arka Gdynia 36%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lechia Gdansk), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lechia Gdansk) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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