Novorizontino 1-0 Chapecoense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 19 Jul 2024

📅19/07/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.82
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
26%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
69%
1.44
Over 2.5
31%
2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
32%
2.44
No
68%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
45%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
13%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
22%
X/2
10%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
51%
-5.1pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.3pp
26%
Away Win
19%
+6.4pp
69%
Under 2.5
66%
+3.3pp
31%
Over 2.5
34%
-3.3pp
32%
BTTS Yes
37%
-4.9pp
68%
BTTS No
63%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novorizontino EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Chapecoense EU Bookmakers 22%
-12% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +15%
1.30/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.47
+1% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +13%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
342 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 79%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.7
24.5 Crosses 14.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Novorizontino
0W-2D-2L
AWAY Chapecoense
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.52 xG 1.14
50% Ball Possession 50%
18 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
328 Passes 329
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.08.2023 Novorizontino Novorizontino 1-2 HT 1-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
07.05.2023 Chapecoense Chapecoense 1-1 HT 1-1 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2
11.08.2022 Chapecoense Chapecoense 2-2 HT 1-1 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2
27.04.2022 Novorizontino Novorizontino 0-3 HT 0-2 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novorizontino
1-0
AWAY Chapecoense
0.92 xG 1.10
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
226 Passes 391
75% Pass Accuracy 81%
12 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Novorizontino vs Chapecoense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novorizontino edged past Chapecoense 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Novorizontino as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (69%), no to both teams scoring (68%) came in.

On the day, Novorizontino had 39% of the ball to Chapecoense's 61%, shots finished 12-16, expected goals 0.92 to 1.10.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Chapecoense led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Novorizontino and 2.00 for Chapecoense.

What was the final score of Novorizontino vs Chapecoense?

Novorizontino 1-0 Chapecoense in the Brazil - Serie B on 19/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novorizontino vs Chapecoense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Novorizontino win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Novorizontino 46%, draw 28%, Chapecoense 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Novorizontino), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Novorizontino) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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