Vila Nova 1-1 Santos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 19 Jul 2024

Vila Nova
1-1 HT 0-0
Santos
📅19/07/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie B – 2024

Vila Nova vs Santos Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.8
Draw
32%
2.94
Away
30%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.56
Over 2.5
36%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
No
56%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
32%
+5.3pp
32%
Draw
31%
+1.6pp
30%
Away Win
37%
-6.8pp
64%
Under 2.5
60%
+3.4pp
36%
Over 2.5
40%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vila Nova v Santos — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Santos EU Bookmakers 40%
+13% / +35% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -31% / -31%
1.25/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.66
-1% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -50% / -26%
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
304 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 79%
15.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
19.1 Crosses 17.0
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Vila Nova 1-1 Santos — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vila Nova
1-1
AWAY Santos
0.56 xG 1.53
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 7
216 Passes 374
73% Pass Accuracy 82%
9 Box Touches 21
25 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Vila Nova vs Santos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vila Nova and Santos couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 32% / 30% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (64%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Vila Nova had 40% of the ball to Santos's 60%, shots finished 9-14, expected goals 0.56 to 1.53.

What was the final score of Vila Nova vs Santos?

Vila Nova 1-1 Santos in the Brazil - Serie B on 19/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vila Nova vs Santos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vila Nova win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Vila Nova 38%, draw 32%, Santos 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Vila Nova), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vila Nova) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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