FC Nordsjaelland 3-0 Aalborg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 19 Jul 2024

📅19/07/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.45
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
24%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.51
Over 2.5
57%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.48
2-3 Goals
38%
2.01
4-5 Goals
27%
2.66
6+ Goals
14%
6.42
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.72
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.05
X/1
17%
3.83
X/2
8%
13.75
X/X
10%
7.19
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
19.95
2/2
11%
9.65
2/X
6%
17.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.95 — our 8% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
64%
-12.0pp
23%
Draw
20%
+3.6pp
24%
Away Win
16%
+8.3pp
43%
Under 2.5
36%
+7.0pp
57%
Over 2.5
64%
-7.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.8pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Nordsjaelland EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Aalborg EU Bookmakers 19%
+9% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +4%
2.28/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.57
+52% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -1%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
467 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 77%
35.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
16.8 Crosses 15.1
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Nordsjaelland
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Aalborg
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.06 xG 1.21
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
455 Passes 326
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.11.2022 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 5-1 HT 1-0 Aalborg Aalborg DAN
14.08.2022 Aalborg Aalborg 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAN
31.10.2021 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 0-2 HT 0-1 Aalborg Aalborg DAN
27.08.2021 Aalborg Aalborg 2-1 HT 1-1 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAN
28.02.2021 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 2-2 HT 1-1 Aalborg Aalborg DAN
22.11.2020 Aalborg Aalborg 1-1 HT 0-1 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Nordsjaelland
3-0
AWAY Aalborg
2.14 xG 1.04
50% Ball Possession 50%
19 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 6
553 Passes 535
91% Pass Accuracy 88%
32 Box Touches 27
13 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FC Nordsjaelland vs Aalborg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Nordsjaelland cruised past Aalborg 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had FC Nordsjaelland as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, FC Nordsjaelland had 50% of the ball to Aalborg's 50%, shots finished 19-15, expected goals 2.14 to 1.04.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aalborg led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for FC Nordsjaelland and 1.33 for Aalborg.

What was the final score of FC Nordsjaelland vs Aalborg?

FC Nordsjaelland 3-0 Aalborg in the Denmark - Süperlig on 19/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Nordsjaelland vs Aalborg?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Nordsjaelland win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split FC Nordsjaelland 53%, draw 23%, Aalborg 24%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Nordsjaelland), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Nordsjaelland) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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DAN More Denmark - Süperlig
19 Jul 2024
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