AGF Aarhus 1-1 Midtjylland — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 19 Jul 2024

📅19/07/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.38
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
43%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.78
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.22
6+ Goals
11%
11.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.78 — our 26% vs market 21.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.52
1/2
7%
27.5
1/X
8%
12.75
X/1
9%
5.53
X/2
21%
5.75
X/X
12%
4.9
2/1
8%
26.5
2/2
15%
3.73
2/X
6%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
38%
-6.8pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
43%
Away Win
36%
+7.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+2.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-2.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.8pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Midtjylland EU Bookmakers 39%
-4% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +14%
1.51/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/1.54
+10% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -5%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
307 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 378 · 79%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.0
21.9 Crosses 17.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AGF Aarhus
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Midtjylland
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.50 xG 1.78
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
328 Passes 240
77% Pass Accuracy 70%
23 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
04.07.2024 Midtjylland Midtjylland 4-0 HT 0-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus HAZ
12.05.2024 Midtjylland Midtjylland 2-1 HT 2-1 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
07.04.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 0-1 HT 0-1 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
25.02.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 2-3 HT 1-1 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
03.09.2023 Midtjylland Midtjylland 1-1 HT 1-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
16.07.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 2-0 HT 1-0 Midtjylland Midtjylland HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AGF Aarhus
1-1
AWAY Midtjylland
2.76 xG 1.56
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
285 Passes 297
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 23
22 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH AGF Aarhus vs Midtjylland
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AGF Aarhus and Midtjylland couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Midtjylland at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, AGF Aarhus had 49% of the ball to Midtjylland's 51%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 2.76 to 1.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Midtjylland led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for AGF Aarhus and 1.83 for Midtjylland.

What was the final score of AGF Aarhus vs Midtjylland?

AGF Aarhus 1-1 Midtjylland in the Denmark - Süperlig on 19/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AGF Aarhus vs Midtjylland?

Before kick-off our model rated an Midtjylland win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split AGF Aarhus 31%, draw 26%, Midtjylland 43%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Midtjylland), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Midtjylland) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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