Midtjylland 4-0 AGF Aarhus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 4 Jul 2024

📅04/07/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.61
Draw
21%
3.94
Away
32%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.51
Over 2.5
48%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.53
No
50%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
22%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
58%
-10.9pp
21%
Draw
22%
-0.8pp
32%
Away Win
20%
+11.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
36%
+16.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
64%
-16.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
61%
-11.6pp
50%
BTTS No
39%
+11.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Midtjylland EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 23%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +37% / +37%
2.00/1.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/0.56
+2% / -42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +150%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
395 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Midtjylland
4W-1D-1L
AWAY AGF Aarhus
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.57 xG 1.43
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
293 Passes 298
73% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
12.05.2024 Midtjylland Midtjylland 2-1 HT 2-1 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
07.04.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 0-1 HT 0-1 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
25.02.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 2-3 HT 1-1 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
03.09.2023 Midtjylland Midtjylland 1-1 HT 1-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
16.07.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 2-0 HT 1-0 Midtjylland Midtjylland HAZ
09.10.2022 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 0-1 HT 0-0 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
POST-MATCH Midtjylland vs AGF Aarhus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Midtjylland cruised past AGF Aarhus 4-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Midtjylland as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Midtjylland had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Midtjylland and 1.00 for AGF Aarhus.

What was the final score of Midtjylland vs AGF Aarhus?

Midtjylland 4-0 AGF Aarhus in the Friendlies on 04/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Midtjylland vs AGF Aarhus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Midtjylland win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Midtjylland 47%, draw 21%, AGF Aarhus 32%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Midtjylland) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Midtjylland) ✗ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HAZ More Friendlies
4 Jul 2024
12:00 Piast Gliwice vs Karvina Analysis →
17:30 Universitatea Cluj vs Diosgyor Analysis →
18:30 Bohemians 1905 vs Paksi SE Analysis →
19:00 RC Strasbourg vs 1860 München Analysis →
19:30 CSKA Moskova vs OFK Beograd Analysis →