AGF Aarhus 2-3 Midtjylland — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 25 Feb 2024

📅25/02/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.84
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
40%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.56
Over 2.5
48%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.99
No
49%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.38
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
5.07
6+ Goals
10%
30.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.66
1/2
8%
32.5
1/X
6%
14.75
X/1
9%
5.79
X/2
15%
4.69
X/X
17%
3.84
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
17%
3.48
2/X
7%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
32%
-1.1pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.3pp
40%
Away Win
39%
+1.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
60%
-8.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
40%
+8.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
46%
+5.0pp
49%
BTTS No
54%
-5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Midtjylland EU Bookmakers 43%
-9% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +16%
1.22/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.29
-7% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
308 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 76%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.4
21.5 Crosses 16.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AGF Aarhus
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Midtjylland
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.96 xG 1.20
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
240 Passes 377
71% Pass Accuracy 79%
15 Box Touches 30
13 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.09.2023 Midtjylland Midtjylland 1-1 HT 1-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
16.07.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 2-0 HT 1-0 Midtjylland Midtjylland HAZ
09.10.2022 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 0-1 HT 0-0 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
20.08.2022 Midtjylland Midtjylland 0-2 HT 0-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
07.11.2021 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 3-0 HT 3-0 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
03.10.2021 Midtjylland Midtjylland 4-0 HT 4-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AGF Aarhus
2-3
AWAY Midtjylland
3.21 xG 2.37
63% Ball Possession 37%
22 Total Shots 13
9 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 4
397 Passes 195
83% Pass Accuracy 67%
42 Box Touches 25
23 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH AGF Aarhus vs Midtjylland
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Midtjylland edged past AGF Aarhus 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 29% / 40% — and on the day Midtjylland made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, AGF Aarhus had 63% of the ball to Midtjylland's 37%, shots finished 22-13, expected goals 3.21 to 2.37 — the balance of chances actually favoured AGF Aarhus.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AGF Aarhus had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for AGF Aarhus and 1.00 for Midtjylland.

What was the final score of AGF Aarhus vs Midtjylland?

AGF Aarhus 2-3 Midtjylland in the Denmark - Süperlig on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AGF Aarhus vs Midtjylland?

Before kick-off our model rated an Midtjylland win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split AGF Aarhus 31%, draw 29%, Midtjylland 40%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Midtjylland), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Midtjylland) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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