AGF Aarhus 0-1 Midtjylland — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.32
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
45%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.67
Over 2.5
51%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.66
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
4.41
6+ Goals
13%
22.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.67
1/2
10%
28.0
1/X
8%
15.1
X/1
7%
6.99
X/2
16%
4.22
X/X
14%
4.24
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
18%
2.82
2/X
5%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
27%
+2.7pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.0pp
45%
Away Win
46%
-1.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
56%
-7.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
44%
+7.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.1pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Midtjylland EU Bookmakers 50%
-8% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +13%
1.34/1.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.75/1.31
+3% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -3%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
283 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 78%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.7
20.3 Crosses 16.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AGF Aarhus
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Midtjylland
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.43 xG 1.23
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
269 Passes 337
74% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 31
14 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
25.02.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 2-3 HT 1-1 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
03.09.2023 Midtjylland Midtjylland 1-1 HT 1-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
16.07.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 2-0 HT 1-0 Midtjylland Midtjylland HAZ
09.10.2022 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 0-1 HT 0-0 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
20.08.2022 Midtjylland Midtjylland 0-2 HT 0-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
07.11.2021 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 3-0 HT 3-0 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AGF Aarhus
0-1
AWAY Midtjylland
0.45 xG 1.36
53% Ball Possession 47%
7 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
301 Passes 263
73% Pass Accuracy 70%
20 Box Touches 18
23 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH AGF Aarhus vs Midtjylland
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Midtjylland squeezed past AGF Aarhus 1-0 away from home.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Midtjylland as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, AGF Aarhus had 53% of the ball to Midtjylland's 47%, shots finished 7-8, expected goals 0.45 to 1.36.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AGF Aarhus had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for AGF Aarhus and 0.83 for Midtjylland.

What was the final score of AGF Aarhus vs Midtjylland?

AGF Aarhus 0-1 Midtjylland in the Denmark - Süperlig on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AGF Aarhus vs Midtjylland?

Before kick-off our model rated an Midtjylland win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split AGF Aarhus 29%, draw 26%, Midtjylland 45%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Midtjylland), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Midtjylland) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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