HFX Wanderers 3-1 Valour — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kanada - Premier League, 19 Jul 2024

📅19/07/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
40%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.75
Over 2.5
46%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.76
No
54%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.0
2-3 Goals
44%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
3.88
6+ Goals
8%
17.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.0 — our 29% vs market 27.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
18%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
40%
-7.1pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.6pp
40%
Away Win
32%
+7.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
53%
+0.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
47%
-0.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.7pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HFX Wanderers EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Valour EU Bookmakers 36%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.39/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/1.86
-31% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -35%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
332 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 79%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.4
18.4 Crosses 21.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HFX Wanderers
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Valour
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.42 xG 0.48
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
360 Passes 361
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
20.05.2024 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers 1-2 HT 0-0 Valour Valour CAPL
07.10.2023 Valour Valour 0-1 HT 0-0 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers CAPL
26.08.2023 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers 3-0 HT 0-0 Valour Valour CAPL
10.06.2023 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers 2-0 HT 1-0 Valour Valour CAPL
06.05.2023 Valour Valour 0-0 HT 0-0 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers CAPL
10.09.2022 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers 1-0 HT 1-0 Valour Valour CAPL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HFX Wanderers
3-1
AWAY Valour
4.73 xG 1.52
53% Ball Possession 47%
20 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
400 Passes 350
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
28 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH HFX Wanderers vs Valour
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HFX Wanderers saw off Valour 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 27% / 40% — and on the day HFX Wanderers made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, HFX Wanderers had 53% of the ball to Valour's 47%, shots finished 20-10, expected goals 4.73 to 1.52.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, HFX Wanderers had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for HFX Wanderers and 0.33 for Valour.

What was the final score of HFX Wanderers vs Valour?

HFX Wanderers 3-1 Valour in the Kanada - Premier League on 19/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HFX Wanderers vs Valour?

Before kick-off our model rated an Valour win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split HFX Wanderers 33%, draw 27%, Valour 40%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Valour) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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