Polonia Warszawa 0-1 Znicz Pruszkow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 19 Jul 2024

📅19/07/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.09
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.9
Over 2.5
53%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.4
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.49
6+ Goals
11%
13.55
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.49 — our 26% vs market 23.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
44%
-4.4pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.5pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+1.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
49%
-2.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
51%
+2.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.4pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Polonia Warszawa EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Znicz Pruszkow EU Bookmakers 33%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.68/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.16
+13% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +18%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
333 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Polonia Warszawa
0W-2D-2L
AWAY Znicz Pruszkow
0.25 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.04.2024 Znicz Pruszkow Znicz Pruszkow 0-0 HT 0-0 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa POL1
16.09.2023 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa 0-1 HT 0-1 Znicz Pruszkow Znicz Pruszkow POL1
11.03.2023 Znicz Pruszkow Znicz Pruszkow 1-0 HT 1-0 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa POL2
11.08.2022 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa 1-1 HT 0-0 Znicz Pruszkow Znicz Pruszkow POL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Polonia Warszawa
0-1
AWAY Znicz Pruszkow
56% Ball Possession 44%
9 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Polonia Warszawa vs Znicz Pruszkow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Znicz Pruszkow nicked a narrow win over Polonia Warszawa 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 29% / 32%) promised a tight game; Znicz Pruszkow found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Polonia Warszawa had 56% of the ball to Znicz Pruszkow's 44%, shots finished 9-11.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Znicz Pruszkow led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.25 goals for Polonia Warszawa and 0.75 for Znicz Pruszkow.

What was the final score of Polonia Warszawa vs Znicz Pruszkow?

Polonia Warszawa 0-1 Znicz Pruszkow in the Poland - 1st Division on 19/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Polonia Warszawa vs Znicz Pruszkow?

Before kick-off our model rated a Polonia Warszawa win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Polonia Warszawa 40%, draw 29%, Znicz Pruszkow 32%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Polonia Warszawa) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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