Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-0 Puszcza Niepolomice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 19 Jul 2024

📅19/07/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.49
Draw
21%
4.19
Away
27%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.23
Over 2.5
50%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.54
2-3 Goals
37%
1.9
4-5 Goals
25%
2.9
6+ Goals
11%
8.33
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.54 — our 27% vs market 17.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.82
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.75
X/1
16%
3.76
X/2
9%
12.4
X/X
9%
6.49
2/1
7%
20.85
2/2
12%
9.22
2/X
6%
17.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
63%
-11.1pp
21%
Draw
21%
+0.8pp
27%
Away Win
16%
+10.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.8pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Puszcza Niepolomice EU Bookmakers 20%
-11% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
2.20/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.49
+24% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +53%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
380 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 208 · 70%
31.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
22.2 Crosses 19.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Puszcza Niepolomice
3.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
2.91 xG 2.07
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
398 Passes 177
81% Pass Accuracy 70%
21 Box Touches 30
12 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 4
16.12.2023 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 3-3 HT 0-3 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
29.07.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 4-1 HT 1-0 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
2-0
AWAY Puszcza Niepolomice
1.89 xG 0.87
68% Ball Possession 32%
20 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 0
467 Passes 187
87% Pass Accuracy 73%
32 Box Touches 15
27 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Puszcza Niepolomice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jagiellonia Bialystok got the better of Puszcza Niepolomice 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Jagiellonia Bialystok as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Jagiellonia Bialystok had 68% of the ball to Puszcza Niepolomice's 32%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 1.89 to 0.87.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Jagiellonia Bialystok had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.50 goals for Jagiellonia Bialystok and 2.00 for Puszcza Niepolomice.

What was the final score of Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Puszcza Niepolomice?

Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-0 Puszcza Niepolomice in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 19/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Puszcza Niepolomice?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Jagiellonia Bialystok 52%, draw 21%, Puszcza Niepolomice 27%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POL More Poland - Ekstraklasa
19 Jul 2024
21:30 Slask Wroclaw vs Lechia Gdansk Analysis →