AGF Aarhus 5-1 Vejle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 19 Aug 2024

📅19/08/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.57
Draw
21%
3.8
Away
22%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.0
Over 2.5
57%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.82
No
48%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.73
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
3.26
6+ Goals
13%
11.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.96
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.95
X/1
12%
3.77
X/2
7%
11.3
X/X
10%
5.59
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
22.7
2/2
9%
8.88
2/X
5%
16.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.7 — our 10% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
60%
-2.4pp
21%
Draw
23%
-1.9pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+4.2pp
43%
Under 2.5
46%
-3.3pp
57%
Over 2.5
54%
+3.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.8pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Vejle EU Bookmakers 21%
-2% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +9%
1.81/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.95
-16% / +42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +6%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
431 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 76%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
23.7 Crosses 17.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AGF Aarhus
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Vejle
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.27 xG 1.05
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
356 Passes 221
78% Pass Accuracy 68%
19 Box Touches 21
24 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.02.2024 Vejle Vejle 0-0 HT 0-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
23.07.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-0 HT 1-0 Vejle Vejle DAN
12.05.2022 Vejle Vejle 1-0 HT 1-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
03.04.2022 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 0-0 HT 0-0 Vejle Vejle DAN
25.02.2022 Vejle Vejle 3-2 HT 2-2 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
12.09.2021 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-0 HT 0-0 Vejle Vejle DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AGF Aarhus
5-1
AWAY Vejle
2.97 xG 1.12
66% Ball Possession 34%
17 Total Shots 13
10 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 7
578 Passes 258
88% Pass Accuracy 78%
31 Box Touches 14
26 Crosses 15
POST-MATCH AGF Aarhus vs Vejle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AGF Aarhus ran out comfortable winners over Vejle 5-1. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had AGF Aarhus as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, AGF Aarhus had 66% of the ball to Vejle's 34%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 2.97 to 1.12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for AGF Aarhus and 0.67 for Vejle.

What was the final score of AGF Aarhus vs Vejle?

AGF Aarhus 5-1 Vejle in the Denmark - Süperlig on 19/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AGF Aarhus vs Vejle?

Before kick-off our model rated a AGF Aarhus win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split AGF Aarhus 57%, draw 21%, Vejle 22%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AGF Aarhus), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AGF Aarhus) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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