Emelec vs El Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Emelec v El Nacional — Team-Based Signals
Emelec vs El Nacional Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-0
Emelec
EKV1
3-0
HT 0-0
El Nacional
EKV1
2-1
HT 0-0
Emelec
EKV1
1-0
HT 0-0
Emelec
EKV1
2-1
HT 0-1
El Nacional
EKV1
Emelec 0-1 El Nacional — Actual Match Statistics
El Nacional squeezed past Emelec 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Emelec at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Emelec had 77% of the ball to El Nacional's 23%, shots finished 15-4, expected goals 0.99 to 0.16 — on chances, Emelec could feel hard done by.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Emelec had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Emelec and 0.83 for El Nacional.
What was the final score of Emelec vs El Nacional?
Emelec 0-1 El Nacional in the Ecuador - Premier on 19/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Emelec vs El Nacional?
Before kick-off our model rated a Emelec win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Emelec 42%, draw 26%, El Nacional 32%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Emelec) went the other way.