Tondela 2-2 Porto II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 19 Aug 2024

📅19/08/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
52%
1.82
Over
48%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1
28%
3.25
2-3
41%
1.78
4-5
21%
3.62
6+
10%
14.7
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.25 — our 28% vs market 25.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
39%
Home Win
44%
-4.6pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.3pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+3.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
51%
+0.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
49%
-0.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.1pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tondela The Market 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Porto II The Market 32%
-8% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +0%
1.34/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.32
-15% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -11%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
307 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.3 Crosses 17.6
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tondela
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Porto II
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.89 xG 1.64
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
317 Passes 477
81% Pass Accuracy 86%
14 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.01.2024 Tondela Tondela 0-0 HT 0-0 Porto II Porto II POR2
13.08.2023 Porto II Porto II 1-1 HT 1-0 Tondela Tondela POR2
22.05.2023 Tondela Tondela 0-1 HT 0-0 Porto II Porto II POR2
15.01.2023 Porto II Porto II 1-1 HT 0-0 Tondela Tondela POR2
05.11.2014 Porto II Porto II 1-1 HT 1-0 Tondela Tondela POR2
02.03.2014 Porto II Porto II 1-0 HT 0-0 Tondela Tondela POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tondela
2-2
AWAY Porto II
1.06 xG 1.28
37% Ball Possession 63%
8 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Tondela vs Porto II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tondela and Porto II couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (39% / 28% / 32%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Tondela had 37% of the ball to Porto II's 63%, shots finished 8-13, expected goals 1.06 to 1.28.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto II led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Tondela and 0.83 for Porto II.

What was the final score of Tondela vs Porto II?

Tondela 2-2 Porto II in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 19/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tondela vs Porto II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tondela win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Tondela 39%, draw 28%, Porto II 32%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Tondela), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tondela) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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