Estrela 0-3 Famalicao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 19 Aug 2024

📅19/08/2024 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
35%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.68
Over 2.5
49%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.85
No
47%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.73
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.29
6+ Goals
10%
21.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.33
1/2
8%
30.5
1/X
6%
13.6
X/1
13%
5.83
X/2
9%
5.02
X/X
14%
4.07
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
34.5
2/2
18%
3.51
2/X
7%
13.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 8% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
34%
+4.7pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.3pp
35%
Away Win
38%
-3.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
56%
-4.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
44%
+4.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
50%
+3.3pp
47%
BTTS No
50%
-3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estrela EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Famalicao EU Bookmakers 42%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +3%
1.45/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.26
+21% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / -31%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
302 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 76%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
19.7 Crosses 17.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estrela
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Famalicao
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.18 xG 0.81
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
359 Passes 241
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
15 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 2
16.03.2024 Famalicao Famalicao 0-0 HT 0-0 Estrela Estrela POR
29.10.2023 Estrela Estrela 1-0 HT 0-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estrela
0-3
AWAY Famalicao
0.69 xG 1.91
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
305 Passes 286
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
13 Box Touches 28
15 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Estrela vs Famalicao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Famalicao swept aside Estrela 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 27% / 35% — and on the day Famalicao made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Estrela had 51% of the ball to Famalicao's 49%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 0.69 to 1.91.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Estrela had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Estrela and 0.00 for Famalicao.

What was the final score of Estrela vs Famalicao?

Estrela 0-3 Famalicao in the Portugal - Premier League on 19/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estrela vs Famalicao?

Before kick-off our model rated a Estrela win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Estrela 38%, draw 27%, Famalicao 35%. The final score 0-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Estrela) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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