UPDF 1-0 Lugazi Municipal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 19 Sep 2024

📅19/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.61
Draw
35%
3.64
Away
25%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.09
No
54%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
7%
X/X
24%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
58%
-18.2pp
35%
Draw
24%
+11.0pp
25%
Away Win
18%
+7.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.5pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UPDF EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugazi Municipal EU Bookmakers 21%
-20% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-1% / -68% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
329 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UPDF
1-0
AWAY Lugazi Municipal
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH UPDF vs Lugazi Municipal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UPDF nicked a narrow win over Lugazi Municipal 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 35% / 25% — and on the day UPDF made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, UPDF had 51% of the ball to Lugazi Municipal's 49%, shots finished 9-6.

What was the final score of UPDF vs Lugazi Municipal?

UPDF 1-0 Lugazi Municipal in the Uganda - Premier League on 19/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UPDF vs Lugazi Municipal?

Before kick-off our model rated a UPDF win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split UPDF 40%, draw 35%, Lugazi Municipal 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (UPDF), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (UPDF) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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