Napredak Krusevac 1-3 Radnik Surdulica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Serbia - Super League, 19 Sep 2025

Napredak Krusevac
1-3 HT 1-3
Radnik Surdulica
📅19/09/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Serbia - Super League – 2025/2026

Napredak Krusevac vs Radnik Surdulica Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.71
Over 2.5
39%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.82
No
59%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
11%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+1.1pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.9pp
29%
Away Win
29%
-0.2pp
61%
Under 2.5
55%
+6.5pp
39%
Over 2.5
45%
-6.5pp
41%
BTTS Yes
51%
-9.9pp
59%
BTTS No
49%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Napredak Krusevac v Radnik Surdulica — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Napredak Krusevac EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Radnik Surdulica EU Bookmakers 32%
+6% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -10%
1.34/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.25
+19% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -54% / +17%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
251 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 73%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
21.6 Crosses 20.4
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.5

Napredak Krusevac vs Radnik Surdulica Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Napredak Krusevac
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Radnik Surdulica
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.62 xG 1.21
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
237 Passes 215
69% Pass Accuracy 67%
20 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.04.2024 Napredak Krusevac Napredak Krusevac 0-2 HT 0-1 Radnik Surdulica Radnik Surdulica SIRP
11.11.2023 Radnik Surdulica Radnik Surdulica 1-2 HT 0-1 Napredak Krusevac Napredak Krusevac SIRP
30.04.2023 Napredak Krusevac Napredak Krusevac 0-1 HT 0-0 Radnik Surdulica Radnik Surdulica SIRP
12.04.2023 Radnik Surdulica Radnik Surdulica 1-0 HT 1-0 Napredak Krusevac Napredak Krusevac SIRP
15.10.2022 Napredak Krusevac Napredak Krusevac 1-0 HT 0-0 Radnik Surdulica Radnik Surdulica SIRP
21.02.2022 Radnik Surdulica Radnik Surdulica 0-0 HT 0-0 Napredak Krusevac Napredak Krusevac SIRP

Napredak Krusevac 1-3 Radnik Surdulica — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Napredak Krusevac
1-3
AWAY Radnik Surdulica
1.64 xG 1.92
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 2
315 Passes 238
82% Pass Accuracy 70%
34 Box Touches 14
31 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Napredak Krusevac vs Radnik Surdulica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Radnik Surdulica beat Napredak Krusevac 3-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Napredak Krusevac at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Napredak Krusevac had 54% of the ball to Radnik Surdulica's 46%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 1.64 to 1.92.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Radnik Surdulica led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Napredak Krusevac and 0.83 for Radnik Surdulica.

What was the final score of Napredak Krusevac vs Radnik Surdulica?

Napredak Krusevac 1-3 Radnik Surdulica in the Serbia - Super League on 19/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Napredak Krusevac vs Radnik Surdulica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Napredak Krusevac win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Napredak Krusevac 43%, draw 28%, Radnik Surdulica 29%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Napredak Krusevac) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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