Neftçi PFK 3-1 Sebail FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.53
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
19%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.0
Over 2.5
47%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
22%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
4%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
61%
-3.0pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.0pp
19%
Away Win
17%
+2.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
46%
+6.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
54%
-6.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.9pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Sebail FK EU Bookmakers 21%
-3% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -7%
1.89/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/2.04
-8% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -25%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
439 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Neftçi PFK
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Sebail FK
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
10.08.2024 Sebail FK Sebail FK 1-1 HT 0-1 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
18.05.2024 Sebail FK Sebail FK 0-3 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
15.03.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 3-0 HT 2-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
20.10.2023 Sebail FK Sebail FK 2-4 HT 1-2 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
14.08.2023 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-1 HT 0-1 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
22.04.2023 Sebail FK Sebail FK 1-1 HT 1-1 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
POST-MATCH Neftçi PFK vs Sebail FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Neftçi PFK got the better of Sebail FK 3-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Neftçi PFK as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Neftçi PFK had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Neftçi PFK and 0.83 for Sebail FK.

What was the final score of Neftçi PFK vs Sebail FK?

Neftçi PFK 3-1 Sebail FK in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Neftçi PFK vs Sebail FK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Neftçi PFK win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Neftçi PFK 58%, draw 23%, Sebail FK 19%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Neftçi PFK) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Neftçi PFK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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